Global battery-electric vehicle (BEV) demand is likely to move at a varying pace regionally, with Tesla set to retain its global sales crown for at least another year, aided by a new EU factory. However, Volkswagen is poised to overtake the US company in 2024 and already leads in Europe. Execution will be key to encroaching on Tesla’s $700 billion market capitalization.

Global automakers will challenge Tesla via an impending wave of competing models, though profit incentives are limited amid rising battery costs and a lack of scale. That may change in 2025-26, as more legacy brands achieve critical mass on new-generation models with proprietary software. Yet such bold BEV ambitions have done little to prevent crisis-level multiples, stoked by recession fears, rising interest rates, supply-chain constraints and inflation.