The Electric Vehicle Transition In Historical Comparison

Advocates for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are enthused about the potential for them to displace most internal combustion energy (ICE) vehicles within a decade or two. The figure below shows a number of projections of BEV market share for new vehicle sales from a variety of groups, some of which are more aspirational than predictive. But rapid growth in EV sales seems to be the consensus. Are there reasons to doubt this?

Many have noted that the rate of market penetration for new technologies has greatly increased in recent decades; in the U.S. smartphones reached saturation in a decade, compared to up to 50 years for appliances like washing machines. Others have compared Tesla to the Model T, suggesting their vehicles are so revolutionary that they will displace ICEs at the same speed that the Model T replaced horses.