Goldman estimated the base case for the market by focusing on San Francisco, the hometown of Uber and Lyft, where they say ride-hailing is more than four times the size of the taxi market. As ride-hailing companies like Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc. continue to grow, they expect other top tier cities, including New York, London and Tokyo, to reach San Francisco’s level of ride-hailing usage by 2030.

That should boost the overall ride-hailing market to $285 billion in the next 13 years, while the taxi market shrinks to a little as a quarter of the size.