Self-driving cars and trucks under testing or being deployed commercially will likely be involved in at least 200 crashes annually over the next three years, according to estimates by federal regulators.

In seeking approval from the Office of Management and Budget to gather new autonomous vehicle (AV) crash-data information, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration revealed on Wednesday what it considers accurate estimates – based on automated driving system (ADS) crashes reported in California – on what to expect from 110 AV manufacturers and operators that have been ordered to report additional and more current crash data.

“There were 105 ADS crashes reported to California in 2019,” according to the agency. “NHTSA believes that it is reasonable to assume that about half of all ADS testing in the United States is occurring in California. Therefore, NHTSA expects that there will be approximately 200 ADS crashes in a year that manufacturers and operators will be required to report to NHTSA.”
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