“We do not expect revenues for auto insurance companies to experience a sudden decline as a result of autonomous vehicles,” Alejandro Zamorano, an analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, wrote Thursday in a report. “Instead we expect a gradual shift in the type of auto insurance products as well as new revenue sources for insurance companies.”
That assessment contrasts with previous dire predictions for the industry. A Morgan Stanley report in 2016, entitled “Are Auto Insurers on the Road to Nowhere,” estimated the business could contract by as much as 80 percent by 2040. But as a handful of fatal accidents involving autonomous vehicles has made clear in recent years, insurance coverage will probably evolve, not disappear.